Technical analysis

Technical analysis

Technical analysis is a means of examining and predicting price movements in the financial markets, by using historical price charts and market statistics. It is based on the idea that if a trader can identify previous market patterns, they can form a fairly accurate prediction of future price trajectories.

It is one of the two major schools of market analysis, the other being fundamental analysis. Whereas fundamental analysis focuses on an asset’s ‘true value’, with the meaning of external factors and intrinsic value both considered, technical analysis is based purely on the price charts of an asset. It is solely the identification of patterns on a chart that is used to predict future movements.

Technicians using charts search for an archetypal price chart patterns, such as the well-known head and shoulders  or double top/bottom reversal patterns, study technical indicators, moving averages, and look for forms such as lines of support, resistance, channels, and more obscure formations such as flags, pennants, balance days and cup and handle patterns.

Technical analysts also widely use market indicators of many sorts, some of which are mathematical transformations of price, often including up and down the volume, advance/decline data and other inputs. These indicators are used to help assess whether an asset is trending and if it is, the probability of its direction and of continuation. Technicians also look for relationships between price/volume indices and market indicators. Examples include the moving average, relative strength index, and MACD. Other avenues of study include correlations between changes in Options (implied volatility) and put/call ratios with a price. Also important are sentiment indicators such as Put/Call ratios, bull/bear ratios, short interest, Implied Volatility, etc.

Technical analysis analyzes price, volume, psychology, money flow, and other market information, whereas fundamental the analysis looks at the facts of the company, market, currency or commodity. Most large brokerage, trading group, or financial institutions will typically have both a technical analysis and fundamental analysis team.

A core principle of technical analysis is that a market's price reflects all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst, therefore, looks at the history of a security or commodity's trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental and news events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to the collective, patterned behavior of investors. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions.

Technical analysts believe that investors collectively repeat the behavior of the investors that preceded them. To a technician, the emotions in the market may be irrational, but they exist. Because investor behavior repeats itself so often, technicians believe that recognizable (and predictable) price patterns will develop on a chart. Recognition of these patterns can allow the technician to select trades that have a higher probability of success.

Technical analysis is not limited to charting, but it always considers price trends. For example, many technicians monitor surveys of investor sentiment. These surveys gauge the attitude of market participants, specifically whether they are bearish or bullish. Technicians use these surveys to help determine whether a trend will continue or if a reversal could develop; they are most likely to anticipate a change when the surveys report extreme investor sentiment.

John Murphy states that the principal sources of information available to technicians are price, volume and open interest. Other data, such as indicators and sentiment analysis, are considered secondary.

However, many technical analysts reach outside pure technical analysis, combining other market forecast methods with their technical work. One advocate for this approach is John Bollinger, who coined the term rational analysis in the middle 1980s for the intersection of technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Another such approach, fusion analysis, overlays fundamental analysis with technical, in an attempt to improve portfolio manager performance.

Types of charts

·         Candlestick chart – Of Japanese origin and similar to OHLC, candlesticks widen and fill the the interval between the open and close prices to emphasize the open/close relationship. In the West, often black or red candle bodies represent a close lower than the open, while white, green or blue candles represent a close higher than the open price.

·         Line chart – Connects the closing price values with line segments. You can also choose to draw the line chart using open, high or low price.

·         Open-high-low-close chart – OHLC charts, also known as bar charts, plot the span between the high and low prices of a trading period as a vertical line segment at the trading time, and the open and close prices with horizontal tick marks on the range line, usually, a tick to the left for the open price and a tick to the right for the closing price.

·         Point and figure chart – a chart type employing numerical filters with only passing references to time, and which ignores time entirely in its construction.

Pros and cons of technical analysis

Pros of technical analysis

Being able to identify the signals for price trends in a market is a key component of any trading strategy. All traders need to work out a methodology for locating the best entry and exit points in a market, and using technical analysis tools is a a very popular way of doing so.

In fact, technical analysis tools are so commonly used, that many believe they have created self-fulfilling trading rules: As more and more traders use the same indicators to find support and resistance levels, there will be more buyers and sellers congregated around the same price points, and the patterns will inevitably be repeated.

Cons of technical analysis

There will always be an element of market behavior that is unpredictable. There is no definitive guarantee that any form of analysis – technical or fundamental – will be 100% accurate. Although historical price patterns give us an insight into an asset’s likely price trajectory, that is no promise of success.

Traders should use a range of indicators and analysis tools to get the highest level of assurance possible, and have a risk management strategy in place to protect against adverse movements